Dive Brief:

• Following other projections of sales spikes, Adobe Analytics predicts this year’s online holiday sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 will reach $221.8 billion, a 4.8% bump from last year. The report projects that buy now, pay later will drive $17 billion in online spending, up from $14.5 billion in 2022.
• Out of the 18 categories Adobe Analytics follows, the report predicts that retailers will discount toys the most at 35%, followed by electronics (30%), apparel (25%), sporting goods (24%), televisions (22%), and furniture and bedding (19%). 
• The report estimates that 51.2% of online spending will occur on mobile devices, surpassing computer-based online shopping for the first time. In its survey of more than 1,000 U.S. shoppers, Adobe found that nearly half (49%) of respondents plan to start their holiday shopping in October this year.

Dive Insight:

Adobe’s research builds upon previous reports indicating that consumers might lean on buy now, pay later services to stretch their holiday budgets. Adobe predicts that shoppers will spend $782 million via BNPL on Cyber Monday, exceeding the $658 million spent on Cyber Monday last year. One in five respondents to Adobe’s survey said they plan to use BNPL to purchase gifts this holiday season.  

“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing at Adobe, said in a statement. “Buy now, pay later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place.”

Last year, shoppers spent $211.7 billion online between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, up 3.5% from the year prior, according to Adobe’s analysis released in January. Online toy sales skyrocketed last year by 206%, followed by video games (115%), and clothing and accessories (94%), Adobe found. The company also tracked an 85% jump in BNPL purchases between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday last year.

Other research also projects an uptick in overall holiday sales this year. Deloitte’s September report estimates that this year’s holiday sales will rise between 3.5% and 4.6%. E-commerce sales are expected to rise between 10.3% and 12.8%, per Deloitte’s report.