Dive Brief:

• Credit, debit and prepaid card activity worldwide will climb 43% to nearly 1.11 trillion transactions by 2029, relative to 2024, research firm Nilson Report predicted last month. That includes consumer and commercial card use on UnionPay, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, JCB, Discover and Diners Club cards.
• The Asia-Pacific region will experience the biggest increase (46.8%) while the U.S. will see the smallest rise (27%), according to the Nilson forecast, which only included cards tied to global networks and not domestic-only networks.
• The predictions echo trends seen over the past decade as the number of U.S. card transactions more than doubled, but also showed the smallest increase relative to markets worldwide, Nilson statistics showed.

Dive Insight:

The slower U.S. growth rate reflects a maturing market, with the first modern credit card emerging in the country in 1950 with the arrival of the Diners Club card. Other card networks soon followed over the next two decades when predecessors to the now familiar Visa and Mastercard brands were born. Eventually, card use began to spread to other parts of the world.

Today, Visa is the largest network in the U.S., followed by Mastercard, but Visa is only the second-largest in the world, behind China’s UnionPay International.

U.S. card transactions jumped 111% between 2014 and 2024, while the combined Middle East and Africa region experienced the biggest jump, rising nearly tenfold, Nilson said in its January issue. Worldwide card use almost quadrupled over that period, with the second-biggest increase happening in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Latin America, Europe and Canada.

As a result, U.S. card activity as a share of the worldwide use is shrinking. In 2014, U.S. card transactions accounted for about 38.6% of the 195.66 billion payments worldwide, which was the largest share, but by last year it was second-largest with just 20.6% of the much larger 775.96 billion in payments, the Nilson research showed.

The largest share of card activity last year was in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for 45.7% of the worldwide activity, Nilson said. By last year, Europe’s share (19.5%) was the third-largest, nearly equal to that of the U.S.

U.S. bank card issuers, including JPMorgan Chase and Capital One, and their card network partners have blanketed the U.S. market with their cards over the past 70 years and now face rising digital alternative competition. While some digital tools, such as PayPal, may connect to credit or debit cards, others, like Early Warning Services’ Zelle, may bypass cards by connecting directly to consumer bank accounts.

Regulators have sometimes egged on the competition. When the Justice Department sued Visa last year over its debit card practices, it alleged the card network had engaged in illegal antitrust maneuvers to fend off big technology company rivals. The lawsuit is pending, but the pressure of the litigation and its resolution could give a lift to card competitors.